Wednesday, May 15, 2013

answers

After reading a few columns, op-eds, et al, I have figured out the answers to my questions and they are as follows: 

1) Everyone expected PML(N) to emerge as the single largest party but everyone also expected a hung parliament and no one, even for a single moment of indiscretion, suggested that any one party can form a govt. on its own. But, Lo and behold ! PML(N) is poised to form a govt. almost on its own. So, what are the reasons behind its such a stellar performance and how could it defy all prediction and analyses ?

 Ans: NS protected his own vote base and further consolidated it by a relatively good performance in Punjab. PML(N) also made inroads into PPP's vote bank due to PPP's misgovernance and its explicable non campaign. Imran's message did have an appeal and did charge up people, but not many. The high voter turn-out and first-time voters did not all go to IK. Instead of neutralising each other's vote-bank, both IK and NS ate into PPP's base, NS more than IK by virtue of its not so narrow focus on the urban base alone.

2) Are the PTI men in KPK entrenched seasoned, old politicians or new faces, political non-entities swept into power by IK wave ?

Ans: Yes, the majority of them are new faces, first-timers in the parliament, barring a few seasoned politicians such as pervaiz khattak, yousaf ayub khan and sardar Mohammed Idrees-all three have been ministers before. Eleven debutants belong to Peshawar and to PTI.

3) Does the PPP's brilliant performance in Sindh owe it to strong individual candidates or the Bhutto romance and blind reverence for 'TEER' ?

Ans: Primarily, it is the strong individual candidates who are responsible for PPP's victory in Sindh. True, the Bhutto romance still holds a sway to some extent, the emotional appeal has weakened a great deal. Had not it been for the strong individual constituency politicians, PPP would not have been able to do so well on the basis of  'Bhutto romance' alone. Thus, it would be wrong to suggest that the Sindhi electorate continues to vote for Bhutto.Bhutto romantics exist in Sindh, but too thinly stretched out to make an electoral impact.Sindhi voters vote for their individual candidates who they think will provide them with relief, once elected.  


P.S. The last answer, however, is subject to further analyses and scrutiny.

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My opinion piece in 'The News'

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1128744-the-job-begins-with-measurement